The Office of the Fiscal Council released a rapid assessment on Friday, October 23, 2026, projecting 's budget deficit at 4 percent of for 2026 and 3.6 percent for 2027. Both figures exceed the of 3 percent of GDP.
The public debt ratio is expected to rise from 80.7 percent in 2025 to 83.6 percent by 2027. To stabilize this ratio, the deficit must drop to 2.4 percent. Recent policy measures, including cuts and drought aid, added 240 million euros to the budget.
Rising costs are a concern as absolute interest expenses are projected to hit 11 billion euros by 2027. With an average bond term of 11.2 years, a one percentage point interest rate hike would increase annual expenses by an additional 0.6 billion euros.